Prologue. The power of ideas
The six epochs. The intuitive linear view versus the historical exponential view ; The six epochs (Epoch one: Physics and chemistry ; Epoch two: Biology and DNA ; Epoch three: Brains ; Epoch four: Technology ; Epoch five: The merger of human technology with human intelligence ; Epoch six: The universe wakes up) ; The singularity is near
A theory of technology evolution : the law of accelerating returns. The nature of order ; The life cycle of a paradigm ; Fractal designs ; Farsighted evolution ; The S-curve of a technology as expressed in its life cycle (The life cycle of a technology ; From goat skins to downloads) ; Moore's law and beyond (Moore's law : self-fulfilling prophecy? ; The fifth paradigm ; Fractal dimensions and the brain) ; DNA sequencing, memory, communications, the Internet, and miniaturization (Information, order, and evolution : the insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's cellular automata ; Can we evolve artificial intelligence from simple rules?) ; The singularity as economic imperative (Get eighty trillion dollars, limited time only ; Deflation ... a bad thing?)
Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain. The sixth paradigm of computing technology : three dimensional ; Molecular computing and emerging computational technologies (The bridge to 3-D molecular computing ; Nanotubes are still the best bet ; Computing with molecules ; Self-assembly ; Emulating biology ; Computing with DNA ; Computing with spin ; Computing with light ; Quantum computing) ; The computational capacity of the human brain (Accelerating the availability of human-level personal computing ; Human memory capacity) ; The limits of computation (Reversible computing ; How smart is a rock? ; The limits of nanocomputing ; Setting a date for the singularity ; Memory and computational efficiency : a rock versus a human brain ; Going beyond the ultimate : pico- and femtotechnology and bending the speed of light ; Going back in time)
Achieving the software of human intelligence : how to reverse engineer the human brain. Reverse engineering the brain : an overview of the task (New brain-imaging and modeling tools ; The software of the brain ; Analytic versus neuromorphic modeling of the brain ; How complex is the brain? ; Modeling the brain ; Peeling the onion) ; Is the human brain different from a computer? (The brain's circuits are very slow ; But it's massively parallel ; The brain combines analog and digital phenomena ; The brain rewires itself ; Most of the details in the brain are random ; The brain uses emergent properties ; The brain is imperfect ; We contradict ourselves ; The brain uses evolution ; The patterns are important ; The brain is holographic ; The brain is deeply connected ; The brain does have an architecture of regions ; The design of a brain region is simpler than the design of a neuron ; Trying to understand our own thinking : the accelerating pace of research) ; Peering into the brain (New tools for scanning the brain ; Improving resolution ; Scanning using nanobots) ; Building models of the brain (Subneural models : synapses and spines ; Neuron models ; Electronic neurons ; Brain plasticity ; Modeling regions of the brain ; A neuromorphic model : the cerebellum ; Another example : Watts's model of the auditory regions ; The visual system ; Other works in progress : an artificial hippocampus and an artificial olivocerebellar region ; Understanding higher-level functions : imitation, prediction, and emotion) ; Interfacing the brain and machines ; The accelerating pace of reverse engineering the brain (The scalability of human intelligence) ; Uploading the human brain).
GNR : three overlapping revolutions. Genetics : the intersection of information and biology (Life's computer ; Designer baby boomers ; Can we really live forever? ; RNAi [RNA interference] ; Cell therapies ; Gene chips ; Somatic gene therapy ; Reversing degenerative disease ; Combating heart disease ; Overcoming cancer ; Reversing aging ; DNA mutations ; Toxic cells ; Mitochondrial mutations ; Intracellular aggregates ; Extracellular aggregates ; Cell loss and atrophy ; Human cloning : the least interesting application of cloning technology ; Why is cloning important? ; Preserving endangered species and restoring extinct ones ; Therapeutic cloning ; Human somatic-cell engineering ; Solving world hunger ; Human cloning revisited) ; Nanotechnology : the intersection of information and the physical world (The biological assembler ; Upgrading the cell nucleus with a nanocomputer and nanobot ; Fat and sticky fingers ; The debate heats up ; Early adopters ; Powering the singularity ; Applications of nanotechnology to the environment ; Nanobots in the bloodstream) ; Robotics : strong AI (Runaway AI ; The AI winter ; AI's toolkit ; Expert systems ; Bayesian nets ; Markov models ; Neural nets ; Genetic algorithms [GAs] ; Recursive search ; Deep Fritz draws : are humans getting smarter, or are computers getting stupider? ; The specialized-hardware advantage ; Deep Blue versus Deep Fritz ; Significant software gains ; Are human chess players doomed? ; Combining methods ; A narrow AI sampler ; Military and intelligence ; Space exploration ; Medicine ; Science and math ; Business, finance, and manufacturing ; Manufacturing and robotics ; Speech and language ; Entertainment and sports ; Strong AI)
The impact : a panoply of impacts (... on the human body (A new way of eating ; Redesigning the digestive system ; Programmable blood ; Have a heart, or not ; So what's left? ; Redesigning the human brain ; We are becoming cyborgs ; Human body version 3.0) ; ... on the human brain (The 2010 scenario ; The 2030 scenario ; Become someone else ; Experience beamers ; Expand your mind) ; ... on human longevity (The transformation to nonbiological experiences ; The longevity of information) ; ... on warfare : the remote, robotic, robust, size-reduced, virtual-reality paradigm (Smart dust ; Nanoweapons ; Smart weapons ; VR) ; ... on learning ; ... on work (Intellectual property ; Decentralization) ; ... on play ; ... on the intelligent destiny of the cosmos : why we are probably alone in the universe (The Drake equation ; The limits of computation revisited ; Bigger or smaller ; Expanding beyond the solar system ; The speed of light revisited ; Wormholes ; Changing the speed of light ; The Fermi paradox revisited ; The anthropic principle revisited ; The multiverse ; Evolving universes ; Intelligence as the destiny of the universe ; The ultimate utility function ; Hawking radiation ; Why intelligence is more powerful than physics ; A universe-scale computer ; The holographic universe)
Ich bin ein singularitarian : Still human? (The vexing question of consciousness ; Who am I? : what am I? ; The singularity as transcendence).
The deeply intertwined promise and peril of GNR : intertwined benefits ... and dangers. A panoply of existential risks (The precautionary principle ; The smaller the interaction, the larger the explosive potential ; Our simulation is turned off ; Crashing the party ; GNR : the proper focus of promise versus peril ; The inevitability of a transformed future ; Totalitarian relinquishment) ; Preparing the defenses (Strong AI ; Returning to the past?) ; The idea of relinquishment (Broad relinquishment ; Fine-grained relinquishment ; Dealing with abuse ; The threat from fundamentalism ; Fundamentalist humanism) ; Development of defensive technologies and the impact of regulation (Protection from "unfriendly" strong AI ; Decentralization ; Distributed energy ; Civil liberties in an age of asymmetric warfare) ; A program for GNR defense
Response to critics. A panoply of criticisms ; The criticism from incredulity ; The criticism from Malthus (Exponential trends don't last forever ; A virtually unlimited limit) ; The criticism from software (Software stability ; Software responsiveness ; Software price-performance ; Software development productivity ; Software complexity ; Accelerating algorithms ; The ultimate source of intelligent algorithms) ; The criticism from analog processing ; The criticism from the complexity of neural processing (Brain complexity ; A computer's inherent dualism ; Levels and loops) ; The criticism from microtubules and quantum computing ; The criticism from the Church-Turing thesis ; The criticism from failure rates ; The criticism from "lock-in" ; The criticism from ontology : can a computer be conscious? (Kurzweil's Chinese room) ; The criticism from the rich-poor divide ; The criticism from the likelihood of government regulation (The unbearable slowness of social institutions) ; The criticism from theism ; The criticism from holism
Epilogue. How singular? ; Human centrality
Resources and contact information
Appendix: The law of accelerating returns revisited.
